I updated the website today with Pool claims data from Tysers 2006/07 Annual P&I Report. I had wanted to see whether the projections I made in 2004 were at all accurate, and I'm not crushed by the results. I overestimated the losses in 2001, but in retrospect, that looks like an anomalously low year, and my projection for 2002 seems to be on track.
I'm a little surprised, however, that there hasn't been more development since 2002. The old stairstepping pattern isn't there anymore. That can either mean that Clubs are putting up higher numbers at the outset, or that they are sitting on reserve increases that they are going to delay advising for as long as possible.
Thanks to Martin Hubbard for the new data, and to Bow Wave for telling me about Tysers' excellent report.
